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** Update – As of 11/3/12, the simulator will now validate all entered position information, in an effort to avoid invalid or corrupted sample games / win percentages. Well, it’s taken a bit longer to post an update than I … Continue reading
This photo highlights the importance of board position when making a critical trade. Using my recently-completed Monopoly simulator, I’ve been able to precisely quantify the jump in win% when owning the light blues (versus oranges) and building when your opponent is on Mediterranean (the WORST place for him/her to roll from) versus Connecticut (the BEST place).
The numbers along the bottom represent how much cash each player has before building, and the assumption is that both players build as aggressively as possible at the end of each of their turns…until one of them goes bankrupt.
All other property is mortgaged, to eliminate unwanted noise or variance.
My favorite is when starting with $1000 each. As the person ending up with the light blues, your probability of winning jumps from a miserable 32.51% to a favorable 57.7% just by timing it when your opponent is in solid striking distance!